I= USE OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL TO DETERMINE THE OPTIMUM CROPPING PATTERNS FOR THE IRRIGATED PUNJAB WITH NATIONAL AND WTO PRICE OPTION Title of Thesis


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Title of Thesis

USE OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL TO DETERMINE THE OPTIMUM CROPPING PATTERNS FOR THE IRRIGATED PUNJAB WITH NATIONAL AND WTO PRICE OPTION

Author(s)

ISHTIAQ HASSAN

Institute/University/Department Details

University of Agriculture, Faisalabad/ Farm Management

Session

March 03, 2004

Subject

Agricultural Economics

Number of Pages

248

 

Keywords (Extracted from title, table of contents and abstract of thesis)

linear programming model, optimum cropping patterns, national and wto price options, linear enterprise, selling prices, gross margin, water estimation, world bank price, apcom actual prices, optimal crop acreage, production and income, wheat, basmati rice, irri rice, cotton, sugarcane, maize, potato, gram, mong / mash, irrigated agriculture, sugarcane economy.

 

Abstract

Linear programming model was applied to calculate the optimal crop acreage, production and income of the irrigated Punjab. We have taken 25.6 million cropped acres from seven civil administration divisions encompassing three crop regions and nine crops of the irrigated Punjab representing 77.34 % of the irrigated area and 66.23 % of the provincial cropped area. In all 25 national and international prices were used to work out 27 optimal solution. Crops included in the models were wheat, Basmati rice, IRRI rice, cotton, sugarcane, maize, potato, gram and mong / mash.

The results show that the irrigated agriculture in the Punjab is more or less operating at the optimal level. Over all cropped acreage in the Optimal solution decreased by 0.37 % as compared to the existing acreage. However, in the optimal cropping pattern some crops like cotton and pluses gained acreage by 9-10 % each, while maize and Basmati rice will be remained unchanged. On the other hand crops like wheat, IRRI rice, potato and sugarcane lost acreage by 4-11 %. As a result of optimum cropping pattern income increased by 1.57 %.

Varying the national prices of a single crop by 10-20 % on both sides, while keeping prices of the other crops constant at the existing level, did not stimulate the acreage and production of the concerned crop substantially, except that of cotton and Basmati rice. Increased prices of wheat and sugarcane, on the other have adverse effect on the exportable crops.

At the International prices, especially when these are reduced by 10 %, all the crops included in the model survive except IRRI rice and sugarcane, whose acreage by 20 %. This shows that food crops and exportable crops would be able to remain in the field; the WTO as such would not be a major danger to Pakistan ‘s agriculture except the sugarcane economy which would be totally washed out.

The results show that the Punjab agriculture is short of capital. A 10 % increase in capital, increased acreage by 9.82 % and income by 10.5 %. .

 

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S. No. Chapter Title of the Chapters

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    Table of Contents  

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1 1 INTRODUCTION 1

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2 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 11

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3 3 METHODOLOGY 29

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  3.1 Model 34
  3.2 Assumptions of the model 34
  3.3 Mathematical Presentation of the model 38
  3.4 The Data 43
  3.5 Method used in constraint estimation 44
  3.6 Water Estimation 55
4 4 RESULT OF DISCUSSION 60

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  4.1 LP Model (optimal solution) 61
  4.2 Price Interventions 67
5 5 CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS

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6 6 SUMMARY

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7 7 LIMITATION AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

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8 8 LITERATURE CITED

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9 9 APPENDIX

 

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