Since no society can make any progress in a state of chaos and disorder, it is axiomatic to postulate that the conditions of law and order must have direct and significant bearing on the pace and pattern of economic development of a country. Despite the fact that lawlessness has a significant impact on economic development, a rigorous analysis on the linkages between the two remains conspicuous by its absence in the general economic literature. The only redeeming feature of the literature concerned with the identification of sources of economic growth is that during the last half a century, empirical research has come to focus on the relationship between political instability (one obvious manifestation of law and order situation) and economic growth. A few interesting studies (mentioned in Chapter 2) have appeared in recent years which have explored the impact of political instability on growth of the specific countries and specific regions. Paradoxically, however, the issue of the linkages between law and order and economic development has generally remained neglected both in theoretical and empirical literature concerned with the identification of sources of development.
This study attempts at filling in the existing gap by presenting a quantitative measurement of the impact of lawlessness on Pakistan's economic development with special reference to the years 1969-1993 though other critical periods have also been touched upon. For this purpose it has been divided into six parts extending over twenty chapters punctuated by eight appendices, relevant tables and graphic presentations. Abbreviations and glossary of some important terms have also been added. The sources of information, too, have been duly incorporated in a bibliography prepared in an alphabetical order and further classified into original (unpublished/restricted sources), books /handbooks, journals/periodicals/magazines, newspapers, UNO reports, general reports, electronic media, encyclopaedia, publications/reports, seminars (papers & proceedings), laws/acts/rules, draft papers, lectures, research papers and manuals. The scheme of things is epitomised as under:
Part I Part I consisting of Chapter I introduces the present study with reference to its aim. In the process vital subjects like security and development, global concern for crimes, development - retarding crimes, importance of rule of law, Pakistan's economy and lawlessness and proposed crime - curbing strategy have been briefly touched upon. On this basis the plans of the research and its scope and limitations have been delineated.
Part II Part II consists of conceptual frame work extending over chapters 2,3,4,5, and 6.
Chapter 2 discusses linkage between law and order and economic development. Having defined "law and order" it explains two key terms i.e. LAOC (law and order condition) and LAOS (law and order situation). The term law and order condition (LAOC) can be used in juxtaposition to the aforementioned term law and order situation, (LAOS). The "law and order condition" is supposed to prevail when the basic socio-economic framework of the country is intact and is not facing a break-down on account of any factors leading to a law filled order situation with the result that economic growth continues without any hindrance or interruption. Hence a society which experiences law and order situation would be one which fails to meet the LAOC. In brief LAOS and LAOC, in the context of our discussion, represent mutually exclusive social structures and phenomena. With reference to these two key terms Chapter 2 examines law and order in selected growth theories. It points out that law and order was assumed as a given factor in these growth theories and its significance was recognized implicitly. Law and order as a determinant of economic development was spelled out in explicit terms only in the theories of growth advanced by the later day economists and economic historians such as J.J Spangler and W. W. Rostow. The crux of J.J. Spanglerâ€™s argument is that the structure of the prevalent value system of a community can reasonably be considered as an important condition of law and order, because the value system defines the basic norms and ethos of human conduct. For example, if the value system of a society is predominated by sectarian or ethnic dispensations, then such a society would be continuously ridden by law and order problems, thus putting frequent twists and turns to the process of economic growth. W.W. Rostow, too, emphasises the role of political factors, institutions and the law and order framework in determining the pattern of economic growth. He reinforces the importance of these factors with reference to the primary tasks of any legal government in the shape of the provision of security, welfare and growth and constitutional order. Chapter 2 further elaborates this point by considering Rostow's law and order expenditure approach as applied to Pakistan. It further elucidates the conceptual framework with reference to Professor Douglas North's exposition of the critical role of the rule of law and equitable enforcement of legislation in affecting lasting economic reforms and building democratic institutions in various countries in the context of the new branch of economic thought which he calls New Institutional Economics. The conceptual aspects with reference to the interconnection between law and order and economic development are further explained in this chapter by taking into consideration Paul P. Streeten's emphasis on the need for a perception of relative security for the continuation of gainful economic activity.
Chapter 3 examines law and order in selected growth measurement models. Using Cobb-Douglas Production Function an attempt has been made in this chapter to assess the role of law and order in economic development of Pakistan. In this context the impact of ideal law and order conditions on optimum employment of labour and capital with maximum output of goods and services has been pinpointed with reference to the macro-level data for the years 1963-64 to 1987-88. It has also been shown in this chapter that a significant deterioration of the law and order situation would inevitably generate a vicious circle of lower capacity utilization, larger level of unemployment and capital flight. Using Matrix - Shaped Algorithm Linkages. Chapter 3 also attempts to measure the impact of lawlessness on economic development with reference to channels generating uncertainty, causing lack of security, bringing about discontinuity and augmenting lack of confidence. These four channels of law and order situation are depicted in Matrix 'A' of Figure-3.1 on Algorithm of Linkages between law and order situation and economic development. In Matrix B, the main constituents of economic development, namely, labour, capital stock, technology and management, and government policies and social institutions are presented. Finally Matrix 'C' which is the interactive matrix of the Matrix 'A' and Matrix 'B', provides us with one of the configurations of the linkages between law and order situation 3.Q.d economic development. The relationship between law and order and economic development has been further explained in Chapter 3 with reference to Computable General Equilibrium Model. It mentions real and nominal flows pertaining to various indicators like production, investment, and markets of products, labour and capital, value of outp1i1t, expenditure and a host of factors related to consumption and investment demand. It establishes logical relationships with regard to endogenous and exogenous Variables They are, by and large, affected by the prevailing law and order situation. The effect has been further considered from the micro-economic perspective by taking into account the behaviors of banks as they allocate credit to the competing borrowers with projects with different levels of risk. This chapter then concludes by pointing various economic factors including labour, capital stock, technology, management investment, savings, banking transactions and host of related economic activities affected by lawlessness. Though all of them are affected by and affect economic Performance yet the degree to which they are linked with the prevailing law and order situation varies. Some linkages are strong and significant while others are weak and insignificant.
Chapter 4 attempts to identify major development factors which are related to crimes. Taking into account the processes of urbanization, housing, unemployment, poverty, juvenile delinquency and health hazards the discussion in this chapter leads us to the conclusion that a high rate of growth of population, rapid urbanization, complexity in productively absorbing the increasing labour force, unemployment, poverty, slums, food shortages, inadequate health coverage. Squatter settlements and acute housing shortages explain in part the pattern of crimes and law and order situation prevailing in a country. Many social and urban problems are closely related to the overall rate of economic growth and have become increasingly relevant not only to development but also to a meaningful strategy of crime prevention.
Chapter 5 consists of a review of socio-economic situation in Pakistan. Taking into account human development scenario it has been pointed out in this chapter that population growth has resulted in higher density in family dwellings increasing from 5.5 persons per house in 1960, to 6.7 in 1980, and an estimated 7.0 in 1987. More than half of the housing in Pakistan consists of one room with an average of 6 persons. Only 13 % of the homes have interior plumbing and 8 % have plumbing outside the house. In 1973 just 18% of households had electricity, while the remainder used primarily kerosene oil for lighting. The situation improved by 1980 when about 30% of Pakistani houses had access to electricity, 54 % of urban and 5 % of rural households. In the period 1973-80 an equal number of households had electricity in both rural and urban areas. However, in terms of percentages this represented 71 % of urban and only15% of rural houses. The availability of pure drinking water has been a nagging and serious health problem. Population demands on potable water have reduced supplies and aggravated health risks. In 1973 about 17% of households had access to drinking water, while the remainder used ground water for daily use. Although in 1980, 20% of households had access to drinking water, this did not match population growth. In urban areas 58% of the households had access to drinking water in 1980, in rural areas only 5 %. At the present rate of growth, it seems unlikely that potable water will be provided for a majority of Pakistanis in the foreseeable future. In 1973 only 4% of households had flushing toilets, 30% had non-flushing toilets, and 66% were without toilets of any kind. Only 24% of households that year had any bathing facilities (50% of urban and 15% of rural households), and by 1980 there had been little improvement in urban areas. Households with baths had increased from 50% to 54% in the period 1973-80, but population growth and rapid urbanization had kept the percentage of increase modest. The pattern of internal migration indicates that 88 % of the migrants originated from rural areas; about half (51 %) settled in urban areas and half (49 %) in other rural areas. Of the 12 % of the migrants originating from urban areas, 27 % settled in rural areas and 73 % in other urban areas. Of all domestic migration reflected in the 1981 census, Singh received 60% of the migrants, Punjab 20%, NWFP 10%, Balochistan 5 % and Islamabad 5 %. This chapter also mentions that with the existence of the perception that the wealthier groups are living very well, even flaunting their I wealth, and that government does not care, trouble can result. The chapter concludes by observing that Pakistan has not done well in terms of some important health and education indicators. For instance, life expectancy is one of the lowest while infant I mortality is one of the highest in Asian region. A large number of our children are anemic. The literacy rate and other- indicators of education, too, place Pakistan very low in relation to other developing countries of comparable level of economic growth. There is a serious distortion in the ratio of resources allocated to social sectors and defense. Even resources allocated for criminal justice administration are extremely inadequate. It appears that scant attention was paid to long term planning of social sectors as well as law enforcement machinery.
In Chapter 6 a law and order computable general equilibrium model has been developed For the present study. I have designated it as Azhar's Modified Structuralist CGE Model of Linkages between Law and Order Economic Development. It develops a I composite index which is a weighted index of the major law and order variables such as (Ç¾w), phenomenon of war (Ç¾p), the emergence of internal political changes /upheavals/protests etc. the phenomenon of strikes (Ç¾s) which may be national,.. I regional or sectoral (such as strike of transport sector), ethnic and religious conflicts (Ç¾C) and finally the miscellaneous factors causing Law and Order situations which are depicted in the symbol (Ç¾m). These variables of Law and Order situation are weighted I by intensities such as: a1, a2, a3, a4 +and 0:5 respectively indicating the relative effectiveness (intensity) of the specific stimuli of Law and Order situation for the macro-economic variables and sectors. The composite index of law and order situation i.e. Ç¾c has, therefore been defined as under:
Ç¾c = oc1Ç¾w + oc2Ç¾p + oc3Ç¾s+oc4Ç¾e+oc5Ç¾m
Important modifications having been made, the Modified Structuralist CGE Model linking Law and Order and Economic Development has the following important features: a) The production function, i.e., equation (1) has been modified to include Ç¾c .si and Ç¾c.si indicating that Law and Order can have strong and direct effects on the output of our economy as well as indirect effects.
b) The export transformation function has been modified to include the new variable Ç¾c.si implying that Law and Order condition can have strong but indirect affect on the export behaviour. However, the second term within the export transformation function includes Ç¾c sd because in case the Law and Order situation is concentrated say in the major export harbour, the export performance of the country will be adversely affected by such a localised strike.
c) In equation 3 the inclusion of Ç¾c .si again indicates the strong but indirect affects of Law and Order condition on imports of a country. The basic premise is that foreign exporters would be affected indirectly (though strongly) from a Law and Order situation of the home country.
d) The equation (4) represents changes in demand for imports as affected by Law and situations. It incorporates Ç¾c si, as the demand for imports is likely to be affected indirectly by Law and Order condition.
e) The export supply function is modified with inclusion of Ç¾c sd and Ç¾c si depending upon the specific condition whether the Law and Order situation is specific to an export sector such a textile or is of general nature.
f) In equation (6) the consumption demand now includes Ç¾c sd as well of Ç¾c mi. This is to take into account some of the immediate and direct effects of Law and Order situation on consumption behaviour as well as the indirect long term effects of Law and Order condition.
g) Equation (7) showing investment demand has been modified to include all the possible stimuli strong, mild, direct and indirect. The rationale for this modification is based on the fact that investment is highly sensitive to Law and Order factors and is affected through multiple channels both direct and indirect.
h) Equation (8) has been modified including Ç¾c sd, Ç¾c si Ç¾c wi to incorporate the direct, and indirect effects of the Law and Order condition on economic variables both the strong and weak.
This part consisting of chapters 7,8,9,10 and 11 discusses law and order situation in Pakistan.
Chapter 7 depicts various contours of crimes including nature of violent crime, socio cultural dimensions, behaviour of individual criminals, political offences, three theories with regard to relative political offences in conjunction with observations made thereon by the Tokyo High Court with reference to high-jacking.
Chapter 8 contains a historical overview of law and order in Pakistan with 'reference to period of united Pakistan 1947-1971 further bifurcated into period of Isettling down (1947-1958), period of relative stability (1958-1967) and interregnum (1968-1971) in juxtaposition with post - 1971 period further divided into period of settling down (1972-1977), period of relative stability (1977-1988) and present period (1989-1995). This classification of the periods, though arbitrary, is based on variable 'like political stability or otherwise, level and pace of economic development and progress and geopolitical scenario prevalent at that time.
In Chapter 9 patterns of lawlessness in Pakistan have been categorised as r political pattern, socio-economic lawlessness and crime. The political pattern has been discussed in a chronological order by listing out mass agitation, martial law, military/state actions, abortive coups/conspiracies, political parties banned, united fronts, controversial election results, major court constitutional decisions and background and removal of rulers. Socio economic patterns describe corruption, financial irregularities and smuggling. The discussion concludes by pinpointing the following common characteristics of successive regimes in Pakistan:
-subordinating institutions to individuals;equating dissent with treason, by failing to distinguish between the government (which is temporary) with the state (which is permanent); -personalisation of power with a "man of destiny" complex that equates the person with the nation; -refusal to relinquish power voluntarily and gracefully; -inability to build a viable system that is not sustained by force; -proclivity to wreck a system which has been built when it does not quite serve personal interests; -a practice of keeping a balance sheet of favours like getting for someone a prized posting thereby leaving him in debt all his life. -inability to build and rely on a team of clean competent confidants; inability to crack down on corruption; -a culture of acceptance of the status of richness irrespective of the means of its acquisition; -greater reliance on state apparatus than on the masses;
preference for a unitary presidential system rather than a federal parliamentary one. Chapter 10 examines the magnitude of lawlessness in Pakistan with reference to overall crimes scenario, province-wise scenario of crimes in all the provinces of Pakistan including Punjab, NWFP, Balochistan and Sindh in addition to a separate evaluation of lawlessness in Karachi. Having thoroughly analyzed the extent of lawlessness in conjunction with deployment of rangers and media perception of its magnitude Chapter 10 draws the conclusion that during all this time of turmoil, rapid industrialization with class polarization, urbanization, martial laws, refugee influx, drug culture introduction, terrorism, ethnic hatred and student violence, while the nation sat on a heap of kalashnikov and ammunition, the only thing that never had the attention of any of forces which matter was the concept of nation building. The present crime challenge which appears stupendous thus may be attributed to four decades of neglect of the Criminal Justice Administration system in terms of value engineering, community support and material resourcefulness.
In Chapter II causes of lawlessness have been identified with reference to political, economic, social, cultural, administrative and moral causes. It thus highlights not only the growth and extent of general sub-culture of disrespect for law but also the genesis of violence punctuated by terrorism, drug related offences, organized crime and sectarian and ethnic divide resulting in unprecedented bloodshed
Part IV Part IV consists of chapters 12 to 14 and deals with the economic impact of lawlessness in Pakistan.
Chapter 12 explains the impact of lawlessness on the economy as a whole. Starting with a discussion on high risk economies and Pakistan's status as a volatile country this chapter ventures an analysis of socio-economic cost of lawlessness in the context of Pakistan in a chronological order. During 1960s overall consolidation, political stability and downward drift in crime were matched by a growth rate of (6.8 %) in GDP, 9.9 % in manufacturing, 5.1 % in agriculture with 3.8% inflation and 1.43 % unemployment. The disturbed law and order and political situation in the 1970s resulted in a decline in the growth rate of GDP (4.8%), manufacturing (5.5%) and agriculture (2.4%). Rate of inflation rose up to 12.3 % and unemployment rate went up to 2.42 %. Relative stability of political and cfiil1e situation in the period from 1980-81 to 11985-86 also brought about an improvement in the growth rates of GDP (6.4%) manufacturing (8.2%) and agriculture (5.4%). Similarly rate of inflation went down to 7.3% though the unemployment rate increased due to other factors like increase in population and return of Pakistani immigrants from abroad. Sectarian violence and other features during the years 1986-89 resulted in a decline in the respective growth rates of GDP (4.8%) and manufacturing (3.96%). The rate of agricultural growth, increased to 6.8% due to better weather conditions and other economic factors. Unemployment remained problems as it ever was. During 1989-90 to 1993-94 the complexity of crime problems indicated itself in declining growth rates of GDP (4.8%), manufacturing (5.8%) and agriculture (3.6%). It was accompanied by rising inflation (10.1 %) and unemployment rate (5.02%). The year 1994-95 was again affected by a state of anarchy and break down of law and order. This was obvious by a decline in the rates of growth of GDP (4.7%), manufacturing (4.8%) agriculture (4.9 against a target of 4.9%). Rate of inflation and unemployment also presented a dismal picture.
Chapter 13 elaborates the impact of lawlessness on selected micro-economic sectors. H contains an analysis of the impact of lawlessness on economic performance with reference to the Karachi situation. Preceding from the consideration of the general impact the analysis in this chapter contains a detailed discussion on impact of lawlessness in Karachi on Karachi Stock Exchange, share of Karachi's industrial units in Pakistan's value added production, impact on government revenue with reference to revenue zones and corporations with particular emphasis on the Pakistan Telecommunication Corporation, budget deficit, non-recovery of stuck-up loans, social cost of closure of Karachi university, sick units, size of black economy, national savings, imports-exports gap, functioning of Karachi Port Trust and loss in insurance premium. These losses have generally been quantified.
Chapter 14 is titled as "Quantitative Impact In Terms Of Azhar's Modified.. Structuralist CGE Model". It examines the significance of law and order/political instability as a variable of economic development. The argument advanced is based on empirical analysis the essential ingredients of which consists of conditions of war, strikes, political developments, ethnic and sectarian conflicts and miscellaneous factors of law and order situation. Measurement constraints notwithstanding the Chapter makes a distinction between autonomous political developments and organic events and then elaborates with reference to value assigned to weights/intensities of major events and values given to weights/intensities of recurring events the values of the composite index of law and order. In the process it also focuses attention on the limitations pertaining to difficulties of measuring a few determinants of law and order situation and subjectivity of the weights to be assigned to the parameters. Having given a resume of a series of indices of law and order conditions in Pakistan from 1964 to 1994 the Chapter in question discusses the use of series of index of law and order in the context of Azhar's Modified Structuralist CGE Model of Economic Development. Based on the tools thus developed Chapter 14 examines the composite index and the real GDP growth as well as a relationship between the composite index and capital flows.
Part V is related to curbing lawlessness through effective policing and extends over chapters 15 to 18.
Chapter 15 discusses the concept of cost - effective policing and itâ€™s rational with reference to the crime solving role of the public, community policing and instruments of community participation.
Chapter 16 reinforces the conceptual framework explained in Chapter 15 by examining. in detail the experiment of cost - effective policing made in Gujranwala Division during the period from 3 August, 1991 to 1 August, 1993. Having discussed factors of experiment the Chapter proceeds on to narrate the Complaint Cell, Backup Support, strategies of criminals and the police and implementation thereof.
Chapter 17 deals with an evaluation of community policing experiment in Gujranwala Division with reference to the explanation of the technique of evaluation. The evaluation, consisting of the results of surveys along-with cost - benefit perception and based on an examination of neighborhood watch with reference to its aims and objectives and strategy, brings forth the usefulness of the experiment in question.
Chapter 18 deals with measures of improvement of General Criminal Administration System. Emphasising the need of a co-ordinate set-up for the smooth functioning of the judiciary, administration, police and representative democratic institutions the Chapter mentions solutions based on short -term as well as long-term approach. The short-term approach proposes no basic structural changes in the existing system of criminal administration. Its emphasis is on allocation of adequate budgetary resources, rationalization of police-population ratio and improvement in policing style through the institutionalization of community policing punctuated by a sound media' policy and revival of the "pantheist" system in conjunction with the activation of the role of local village officials like "Numberdars" /"Chowkidars" and adoption of a sound strategy of crime control on the pattern of measures adopted by the Punjab police during the period form 20 June, 1991 to I June, 1993. The long-term approach includes the preparation of preparation of Five Years Plans (as was done in the Punjab in 1991-92) encompassing traffic management, training, transport and communications, arms modernization, modernization of equipment and logistic, constitution of a police technical cadre, modernization of investigative aids, detective training school, modern aid and equipment for scientific investigation, police buildings, manpower and morale, separation of investigation from watch and ward, strengthening of sub-divisional command, Judicial lockups at sub divisional level, induction at S.I. level with minimum academic qualification of a graduate, encouragement of private detective and security agencies and police morale boosting. This Chapter also makes proposals for improving the functioning of the prosecution agency, courts, prisons and medico-legal services. It further touches on the issue of the international dimension of crime and proposes a mechanism for co-operation amongst democratic countries against terrorism.
Part VI Part VI consists chapters 19 and 20.
Chapter 19 reiterates the validity of Azhar's Modified Structuralist CGE Model of Linkages between Law and Order Situation and Economic Development. It emphasizes the fundamental conclusion that that highly volatile and unstable periods from the point of law and order and political management are those with low economic performance especially in terms of real GDP growth and vice versa. Thus there is clear inverse correlation between political instability (or uncontrolled law and order conditions) and economic development. In specific conditions prevailing in Pakistan, the uneven and unmanaged conditions of law and order and political situations could be identified as the major cause of chequered and abortive 'economic history' of the country.
Chapter 20 contains conclusions and recommendations. General conclusions sum up the main argument of this study pertaining to interdependence of the rule of law and economic development, national and international dimensions of crime, the adverse impact of organised crimes, economic crimes, terrorism and insurgency on economic development, Paul Streeten's focus on human development and North's emphasis on the critical role of maintenance of the rule of law in the institutional setting, political, socio-economic and criminal contours of lawlessness in Pakistan, linkages between law and order and economic development and resultant instability, socio-economic costs of lawlessness in Pakistan, failure of administrative response to lawlessness in Sindh by first deploying the army and then giving police powers to the rangers, the basic duty of the criminal justice system to deliver justice, the role of the police in prevention of crime and enforcement of laws, dependence of crime control function on the standards of behaviour observed by individual citizens; the degree of responsibility accepted by parents, the standards and values disseminated in schools; and the image of acceptable behaviour presented by the media and success story of the experiment in community policing made in the Gujranwala Range during the period from 3 August, 1991 to 1 August, 1993. General recommendations propose a package consisting of good governance, improvement in general administration, measures for macro-economic stability, formulation of a national policy for criminal justice administration and the adoption of a developmental approach for improving police effectiveness. This will be achieved by adhering to both short-term and long-term solutions proposed in Chapter 18. The Chapters concludes by pointing out areas for further research.