I= ENERGY SYSTEM MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM SUSTAINABLE ENERGY ALTERNATIVES FOR PAKISTAN
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Title of Thesis
ENERGY SYSTEM MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM SUSTAINABLE ENERGY ALTERNATIVES FOR PAKISTAN

Author(s)
Mukhtar Hussain Sahir
Institute/University/Department Details
University of Engineering and Technology
Session
2007
Subject
Mechanical Engineering
Number of Pages
194
Keywords (Extracted from title, table of contents and abstract of thesis)
energy system modeling, energy alternatives, national energy policy, national energy systems, final energy supply-consumption model, sustainable energy alternatives

Abstract
The thesis aims to explore the feasibility of using energy models as planning tools for national energy policy in Pakistan and, to analyze future energy scenarios for the country in the context of the energy security and sustainability concerns. Complexities of the present day national energy systems and the emerging trends of departure from the traditional planning practices have been reviewed with examples of important classes of energy models developed/used in the contemporary world. Also three popular energy modeling tools; developed through multinational initiatives, have been compared and based on that two of these have been recommended for adoption in Pakistan. Major contributions of the author include the identification of a roadmap for the development of an indigenous national energy model; via design of a pilot national energy supply-demand system model in IEP model format, analysis of the scenarios presented by the past trends and the future energy sector targets envisaged in the published government plans and, finally, the analyses of the country's long term energy options in the context of contemporary issues and perceived constraints of energy security and sustainability. The thesis concludes that long term sustainable energy supplies for Pakistan can be ensured by effective policy instruments, based on realistic planning backed by quantitative analysis; for which energy models are the best option and, the rational strategies to precisely understand and wisely overcome the practical barriers due to the regional and global geopolitical scenarios and the domestic governance practices.

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14461.19 KB
S. No. Chapter Title of the Chapters Page Size (KB)
1 0 Contents
1194.43 KB
2 1 Energy System and Modeling options 1
2740.05 KB
  1.1 Emergence of energy related issues 1
  1.2 National energy systems and planning approaches 16
  1.3 Selected examples showing worldwide application of energy models 20
  1.4 Energy modeling options for developing countries 25
  1.5 Conclusions and the scope of the present work 29
  1.6 References 32
3 2 Choosing Energy modeling tool for adoption 38
1834.96 KB
  2.1 Introduction to energy model specifications 38
  2.2 Salient features of popular modeling tools 48
  2.3 Basis of selection and comparative assessment of energy models 58
  2.4 Conclusions and recommendations 60
  2.5 References 61
4 3 Development of indigenous energy model for Pakistan 64
2596.93 KB
  3.1 Profile of national energy system of Pakist 64
  3.2 Modeling national energy system of Pakistan 74
  3.3 Final energy supply-consumption model of Pakistan 89
  3.4 Using final energy supply-consumption model as IEP model 93
  3.5 Conclusions 101
  3.6 References 102
5 4 Analysis of Long Term Sustainable Energy Alternatives For Pakistan 104
2133.91 KB
  4.1 Scenario assumptions and data analysis 104
  4.2 Typical analysis of scenario assumptions 115
  4.3 Subjective analysis of energy security and sustainability issues 126
  4.4 Summary of conclusion and recommendations 129
6 5 Appendix €“ A: Included papers 133
4179.03 KB
  5.1 Appendix €“ B : Data used for analysis 163